Negative Start to December Markets Slide as Bitcoin Drops Sharply

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•  30 Nov 2025
 

December has opened on a cautious and negative note across global financial markets. After a strong November, futures on major Wall Street indices are down by as much as 0.8%, while Bitcoin has fallen nearly 6%, dropping below the $86,000 level. The pullback reflects growing investor caution ahead of a heavy week of U.S. macroeconomic data and mounting speculation about a possible monetary policy move by the Bank of Japan.

Markets are bracing for a wave of key indicators, including Cyber Monday sales data, private employment reports, and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the direction of industrial activity and the broader economy. The Fed is expected to make its next interest rate decision in mid-December, with many forecasts still pointing to a third consecutive rate cut, driven by signs of cooling in the labor market.

Attention is also turning to leadership at the Federal Reserve, as markets speculatively await news of who might eventually replace Jerome Powell. Kevin Hassett, a senior economic adviser at the White House, has hinted that an announcement on a potential candidate could arrive soon, and former President Donald Trump has claimed that he already has a nominee in mind.

Japan is signaling a very different direction. For the first time since 2008, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda ahead of the bank’s December 19 meeting. This has already pushed Japan’s two-year bond yields to their highest levels since 2008 and strengthened the yen by about 0.4% against the dollar. If confirmed, it would highlight a rare divergence in policy between the world’s two most influential central banks: the Fed leaning toward easing, while Japan prepares to tighten.

Market softness comes despite the fact that November marked the seventh consecutive month of gains for the global MSCI index. Historically, December tends to be a positive month, with average gains of around 0.5%, but current sentiment is dampened by concerns—especially around technology stocks and AI-focused companies, whose valuations are increasingly viewed as stretched relative to actual returns.

In commodities, oil prices are moving higher. WTI crude is up about 1.8% to $59.6 per barrel after OPEC+ confirmed it will not increase production quotas in the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, silver and copper continue their upward momentum after reaching new highs last week.

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