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30 Nov 2025The first trading week of December opens with a careful balance between optimism for another Federal Reserve rate cut and growing hesitation around technology stocks and risk exposure. While the broader market has recovered from October’s sharp pullback, recent price action shows that investors are becoming more selective, more data-driven, and more sensitive to subtle changes in policy and growth expectations.
The SPX has gained roughly 16% year-to-date and is trading close to its all-time high. At the same time, the NASDAQ remains about 3% below its October peak, reflecting weakness in several large technology names. A steep decline in Bitcoin, falling from around 125,000 to below 90,000 in a short period, has also contributed to a more cautious tone in risk assets. In contrast, smaller and rate-sensitive stocks have shown relative strength as markets price in a higher probability of additional easing from the Federal Reserve.
On Tuesday Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a panel discussion at Stanford University. This will be his final public appearance before the quiet period ahead of the December 9-10 policy meeting. Futures markets are currently indicating around an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Any comments on inflation progress, labor conditions, or financial stability will be closely analyzed, as even small changes in wording could influence short-term market direction.
Internationally, attention will be on inflation readings from the euro area, along with key data releases from major Asian economies. Regional PMI figures will offer additional insight into global demand and manufacturing trends. With markets currently sensitive to macro data, these reports are likely to play a role in shaping overall sentiment.
Several major economic indicators are scheduled for release following delays caused by the 43-day government shutdown. These include the ISM Manufacturing report, ADP private employment figures, the ISM Services index, weekly initial jobless claims, and the core PCE price index. Together, they will provide a more complete picture of underlying economic momentum heading into year-end.
The earnings calendar is also notable this week, particularly in areas linked to cloud computing, cybersecurity, AI and consumer spending. Companies reporting include $MDB $CRWD $MRVL $GTLB $CRM $SNOW $DG $KR $HPE $ULTA $VSCO. Their results and guidance may influence near-term positioning, especially for investors with exposure to growth and technology sectors.
With multiple macro and micro drivers converging the coming days are likely to offer useful signals rather than broad clarity. This may be a period for tighter risk management and selective positioning. For longer-term it is an opportunity to reassess exposure to both high-growth themes and more resilient, defensive areas of the market. If one of these companies is already on your radar, it may be worth reviewing its full outlook in more detail before the next major move unfolds.
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