Wall Street Week Ahead - Short Trading Week and Jobs Report Could Decide Fed Move in September
The markets ended August with new highs and enter the infamous month of September. The upcoming employment data and the Fed decision on September 17 will determine whether this is a continuation of the rally - or the beginning of a correction
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Sep 01 2025
Wall Street enters September after a record-breaking August, but history reminds us this month is often the toughest for stocks. between optimism about the continuation of the momentum and the old fear of the infamous month. August ended with new highs for the leading indices. The S&P 500 crossed the 6,500 mark for the first time and the Dow Jones touched its own records - but every veteran trader knows: historically, September is the worst month for stocks.
Short trading week and employment report - what do analysts expect?
Wall Street enters September after a record-breaking August, but history reminds us this month is often the toughest for stocks. between optimism about the continuation of the momentum and the old fear of the infamous month. August ended with new highs for the leading indices. The S&P 500 crossed the 6,500 mark for the first time and the Dow Jones touched its own records - but every veteran trader knows: historically, September is the worst month for stocks.
This warning is not just a theory. The data shows that every time, the major US indices – the S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq – record their weakest performances of the year in September. This year, as the markets enter it after a long rally, the pressure is even greater: is this the beginning of an expected pullback, or will the markets manage to break the statistics?
Analysts Split on Market Outlook
On the one hand, UBS estimates that the markets are in the midst of a sustained bull market: a soft landing for the economy, a decline in interest rates and strong corporate profitability should continue to fuel the gains. On the other hand, some warn that the resilience of the American economy is deceptive. Gregory Deco of EY-Parthenon claims that growth in the second quarter, which stood at 3%, was mainly due to an artificial decline in imports, following a surge in early purchases by businesses that feared tariffs.
The key figure for September will be the labor market. After July’s weak employment report, investors will be closely watching Friday’s jobs report. Any further signs of a slowdown in hiring would signal to the market that the Fed is all but committed to cutting rates this month, a scenario that could change the direction of trading in the short term.
Along with the macro, there will also be micro test points: financial reports from big names like Salesforce and Broadcom, which will provide a glimpse into demand in the technology and cloud industries.
What's on the Economic Events
The coming week is packed with significant economic releases, which will provide the Fed and investors with critical information ahead of the interest rate decision on September 17.
On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released, with a forecast of 48.9 points, along with the Industrial Price Index. Later in the week, on Thursday, the ISM Services Index (forecast: 50.5 points) will be released, along with data on service prices and the ADP private employment report (forecast: only 71 thousand new jobs).
The main event will come on Friday, when the official employment report will be released: the forecast is for an addition of only 74 thousand jobs - a relatively weak figure - and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. In addition, the average hourly wage data will also be published (forecast: an increase of 0.3%).
These indicators are expected to decide the balance of risks for the Fed as to whether to reduce interest rates as early as September, or wait a little longer.
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Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.
