Nvidia Looks Cheap as Goldman Sees 45% Upside

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•  06 Jul 2026
 

$NVDA Nvidia continues to lag the broader chip sector, but Goldman Sachs believes the current price already reflects a large part of the concerns. Goldman Sachs is keeping a buy rating on Nvidia with a $285 price target, a 45% premium to the market price, despite growing concern over loss of market share in AI chips. The analysts estimate that even in a scenario of strong competition, the company can still grow at an exceptional pace.

Since the start of the year, the stock is up about 4.5%, an unusual gap compared with some chip stocks benefiting from renewed enthusiasm around AI investment. The central issue troubling investors is a possible shift in the demand map. Nvidia large customers, led by Alphabet and Amazon, continue buying AI processors from the company, while also offering the market their own custom chips.

These are ASIC chips, built for specific tasks and allowing cloud giants to reduce dependence on an outside supplier, control costs better, and tailor hardware to their data center needs. At the same time, a larger share of budgets is also moving to central processors from AMD and Intel, which serve broader AI workloads. The implication is that the market is starting to ask a different question: whether Nvidia remains the main beneficiary of the next investment wave, or whether the pie is being divided among more players.

That is why even positive days in the chip sector no longer guarantee a sharp move in Nvidia shares. Goldman Sachs, however, is presenting a more patient approach. Analyst James Schneider is maintaining a buy rating and a $285 price target per share. According to him, even in a scenario where custom chips take a more meaningful share, and even when competitors and central processor makers receive a larger part of budgets, Nvidia is still expected to reach revenue of about $635 billion in 2027, growth of about 55%.

Goldman central argument rests on valuation. According to Schneider forecast, Nvidia trades at a price earnings multiple of less than 14 on expected 2027 earnings. For a company that continues to grow at a high double digit pace, with high profitability and a leading position in AI infrastructure, this is a valuation that looks moderate relative to the strength of the business. In other words, the stock already includes a certain discount for erosion in market share.

The next factor that could shift sentiment is the company next hardware generation, Vera Rubin, which is expected to reach mass shipments in the second half of the year. If the new generation again opens a performance gap versus competitors, Nvidia may convince the market that it is still several steps ahead. If the gap narrows, investors will continue pricing the transition to a broader and more fragmented AI market.

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