Monday.com Q1 2025 Earnings: Can 51% Drop Reverse Course?

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Elephant Earnings specializes in sharp and insightful earnings report analysis. With a focus on uncovering the truth behind the numbers
 

•  10 May 2026
 

$MNDY Monday.com heads into its first-quarter earnings report on Monday before the Wall Street open having shed roughly 51% year-to-date, compressing the market capitalization to approximately 3.7 billion dollars. Wall Street consensus targets revenue of 339.07 million dollars alongside adjusted earnings per share of 0.93 dollars, implying top-line growth of approximately 20.1% versus the year-ago quarter. That growth rate, while respectable for a software company that has already crossed the one-billion-dollar annual revenue threshold, marks a meaningful deceleration from the 30.1% expansion recorded in the same period last year. The question driving institutional flows is whether that deceleration reflects a maturing business executing a controlled transition or the early signal of a structurally weaker demand environment.

The earnings momentum narrative around Monday.com has been notably complicated across the past three reporting cycles. The company beat both revenue and earnings estimates in each of those three quarters, yet the stock fell by double-digit percentages following every single release, declining approximately 30.6% after Q2 2025 results, roughly 13% after Q3, and approximately 24% after Q4. That pattern signals that investors are no longer rewarding headline beats in isolation. They are scrutinizing forward guidance, the pace of expansion within the large-customer segment, and management confidence in the full-year growth trajectory.

The broader AI risk overhang adds a distinct layer of pressure on the stock and on multiple expansion potential. Investment bank Oppenheimer evaluated 17 cloud software companies on AI resilience following the most recent earnings cycle and assigned Monday.com the lowest score across the entire group, spanning both large-cap and mid-cap peers. The concern is structural: if enterprises can construct lightweight workflow solutions using AI tooling, or consolidate the number of SaaS platforms they operate, demand for purpose-built work management software could erode at the margin. Monday.com is itself embedding AI capabilities into its platform and benefits from deep customer workflow integrations, but the market has already begun repricing that uncertainty into the multiple.

The balance sheet and cash generation profile partially offset that risk and represent the strongest counterargument for current positioning. Monday.com held approximately 1.67 billion dollars in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments as of year-end 2025, a figure that represents a substantial portion of the current market capitalization. Operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months reached approximately 333.6 million dollars, with quarterly figures of 59.7 million dollars in Q4, 95.1 million dollars in Q3, and 66.8 million dollars in Q2. The company is trading at roughly 18 times current-year estimated earnings and approximately 14 times next-year estimates, a valuation that looks optically attractive for a cash-generative, double-digit-growth software business, provided the growth profile holds.

The setup into this report is straightforward: Monday.com has already demonstrated it can exceed Wall Street estimates, but three consecutive post-earnings selloffs confirm that beats alone are insufficient to shift sentiment. Investors will focus on large-customer cohort expansion, specifically growth in accounts paying above 50,000 dollars or 100,000 dollars annually, the tone and range of full-year guidance, and any commentary directly addressing AI-related demand. Peers including Atlassian, which reported 31.7% revenue growth and beat estimates, and Appian, which delivered 21.5% growth and also exceeded expectations, offered mixed post-earnings price responses, reinforcing that market reaction is driven by guidance quality and growth durability rather than backward-looking beats. If Monday.com delivers stable guidance, continued large-customer penetration, and sustained profitability, the compressed valuation becomes a credible positive catalyst. If guidance disappoints again or management signals softness in the SMB channel, the market is likely to treat even a clean beat as confirmation that the slowdown is not temporary.

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