Oil Above $100 After Iran War SPX Futures Rebound

 StocksRunner
 
  StocksRunner
 
Follow  Message
 
 
 
Find out what happening right now and get all the pieces of the puzzle on important data activity before the major news sources break the story and see what are the trends
 

•  12 Mar 2026
 

Oil remains above the $100 threshold as global markets stabilize after a sharp selloff, while SPX futures move modestly higher following yesterday decline on Wall Street. Asian equities are still trading lower but losses are narrowing as the session progresses. Investors remain focused on the war with Iran and its implications for global energy supply. The key macro debate is whether the energy shock evolves into a renewed inflation impulse.

The broad Asia equity index is currently down about 0.7%, recovering from an earlier decline of roughly 1.2% at the open. Meanwhile, $SPX futures are up about 0.4% after the index itself fell approximately 1.5% on Thursday to its lowest level since November. The price action reflects a typical risk-off unwind followed by tentative dip-buying. Traders are assessing whether the energy spike will translate into sustained inflation pressure and tighter financial conditions.

Energy markets remain the primary driver of cross-asset volatility. Brent crude is trading slightly above $100 per barrel after surging about 9% on Thursday, while $WTI crude holds near $95. The rally is driven by fears of severe disruption to global energy supply tied to the war with Iran and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that carries roughly 20% of the world oil. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency, the conflict is already impacting about 7.5% of global oil supply and an even larger share of energy exports.

The central risk scenario is further disruption to oil flows in the region. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained, crude prices could climb toward levels last seen in 2008. At that time, oil peaked near $147 per barrel. The warning has reinforced an energy-led macro regime shift that traders are now pricing across equities, rates, and currencies.

Washington is attempting to calm the energy market by easing sanctions to allow certain purchases of Russian oil. The Trump administration announced a new exemption covering shipments loaded onto tankers before March 12, a broader relief measure than previous waivers that primarily enabled India to increase imports from Russia. The goal is to increase global supply and moderate the spike in prices.

At the same time, the U.S. administration is considering a temporary suspension of an old maritime law requiring American-flagged vessels to transport goods between U.S. ports. Such a move could ease supply chain pressure during a period of elevated energy costs. Policymakers are also discussing potential action to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical geopolitical catalyst for global energy markets.

The energy shock has already pushed the global equity index more than 5% below its recent peak. In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is now around 4.27% after rising in recent sessions, while the 2-year yield stands near 3.74%. This rates move reflects a repricing of policy expectations as the market reassesses the inflation outlook.

The conflict has also altered expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Before the outbreak of war, investors anticipated two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year. Current market pricing now implies anywhere between zero and one cut, reflecting the inflation risk tied to higher energy prices.

Currency and alternative assets are also reacting to the geopolitical shock. The U.S. dollar has strengthened to roughly a two-month high, with the euro trading near 1.15 against the dollar and the Japanese yen around 158.5 per dollar. In crypto markets, $BTC is up about 1.7% to roughly $71,300, while $ETH rises about 2.5% to around $2,100.

Another clear signal of market anxiety is the surge in gold. The metal is up roughly 0.7%, trading near $5,115 per ounce as investors rotate into traditional safe-haven assets during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

What to watch next:
The key trigger remains the Strait of Hormuz. If Brent decisively holds above $100 and supply disruptions expand, the next macro inflection would be a volatility spike across equities and rates, with $SPX support levels likely tested while energy assets remain bid.

View All Headlines