Why Tesla Earnings Call Could Be a Ticking Time Bomb

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•  28 Jan 2026
 

As Tesla gears up to release its fourth-quarter results today, traders and investors know that the real drama won't be in the numbers themselves, but in the highly anticipated investor call with Elon Musk. Forget the usual financial acrobatics; this time, the spotlight is firmly fixed on the perplexing questions swirling around Musk ambitious vision for autonomous driving and beyond. Recent moves by Tesla, like removing safety supervisors from some Austin robotaxis, have lit a fuse under the already intense debate about the true readiness of full self-driving (FSD) technology.

Analysts are bracing for a sharp decline in Tesla profitability and revenue. We're talking an estimated profit per share of just 45 cents – a hefty 38% drop from last year – with revenues expected to dip around 4% to $24.8 billion. These figures paint a clear picture of ongoing weakness in the core automotive business. Yet, for many, these aren't the figures that truly matter. Instead, all eyes will be on Musk narrative, as he's expected to dive deep into the progress of the robotaxi project, the development of FSD, and other futuristic ventures in AI and robotics, spearheaded by the Optimus robot.

The decision to remove safety supervisors from certain autonomous vehicles in Austin has raised more than a few eyebrows. The company has been conspicuously quiet on whether this supervision has simply shifted to escort vehicles, or if truly unsupervised journeys have been conducted, and at what scale. This ambiguity only fuels the skepticism. Adding to the puzzle, Tesla is also tweaking its pricing model for driver-assistance systems. They've stopped offering Autopilot as a one-time purchase in North America, signaling a potential price hike for the human-supervised FSD subscription, with the one-time purchase option for FSD set to vanish entirely after mid-February.

Investors are hungry for answers, and it's not just about cars. The most popular question among private investors ahead of the call isn't even about Tesla automotive operations, but about Elon Musk other ventures. Many are seeking clarity on the future of SpaceX and a potential IPO. Crucially, they want to know if long-standing Tesla shareholders will get preferential treatment in any SpaceX offering a concern that reflects a nagging worry about Musk divided attention across his various companies. This question alone has garnered thousands of votes, representing millions of Tesla shares, underscoring its immense importance to the broader investment community.

Other top-priority questions directly challenge the heart of Tesla autonomy strategy. Investors are demanding clear timelines for the transition to fully autonomous, unsupervised driving, both for the robotaxi fleet and private vehicles. They also want to understand the primary bottleneck hindering widespread deployment: Is it safety and performance limitations of the latest models, a shortage of human supervisors (remote or in-vehicle), or regulatory hurdles that vary across countries and cities? This lack of transparency makes it incredibly difficult for the market to accurately assess Tesla future growth trajectory.

Among analysts, opinions are sharply divided. Morgan Stanley sees a convergence of all Musk businesses automotive, space, AI, and robotics viewing the removal of safety supervisors as a significant milestone that demonstrates Tesla confidence in its computer vision system. They argue that driverless robotaxi operations are a necessary step towards integrating unsupervised FSD into private vehicles. However, they also caution that the path to widespread deployment remains fraught with challenges.

Other analysts, like those at Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan, are more conservative. They point to a persistent decline in vehicle sales and a widening gap between Tesla market valuation and its actual financial performance. Their assessment is that the market is pricing in rapid success in autonomy, while the risk of disappointment remains high.

The latest delivery figures certainly bolster these concerns. Tesla reported a roughly 16% drop in deliveries in the fourth quarter, marking its weakest annual performance ever. This trend casts a shadow over future projections. Even the ambitious future projects aren't immune to doubt, with UBS and Oppenheimer suggesting that the return on investment from AI and robotics projects may be further off than anticipated, and that Optimus development pace is slower than initial estimates.

On the flip side, some bullish investment houses, notably Wedbush, view Tesla as a company undergoing a profound transformation from an automotive manufacturer to a technology powerhouse. They believe that successful robotaxi deployment and the commercialization of humanoid robots could justify a significantly higher market capitalization in the future. Musk himself continues to paint an optimistic picture. At Davos, he declared that autonomous driving is, in his view, a technologically solved problem, and that the company expects to receive regulatory approvals for supervised FSD in Europe and China in the near future, although Chinese officials have expressed reservations about these timelines.

Musk also stated that the Optimus robot could hit the commercial market by 2027, an assertion that highlights the long-term horizon on which Tesla current growth story is predicated.

Meanwhile, the traditional automotive business continues to grapple with escalating competition, slowing demand, and the winding down of government incentives. While Tesla stock ended the year with a moderate gain, it remains highly volatile, having dropped 4% since the start of the year and currently trading at a valuation of $1.4 trillion. Investors will be hanging on every word from Musk, hoping for clarity amidst the growing questions and the immense pressure to deliver on his futuristic promises.

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