Robinhood Surges on New Futures Exchange Launch

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•  26 Nov 2025
 

•   HOOD  
   
  +1.89%

$HOOD stock jumped after announcing a major expansion into prediction markets through a new derivatives exchange partnership with Susquehanna International. For traders who've been watching transformation Robinhood over the past year, this move signals something bigger than just another product launch.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Over 9 billion event contracts have traded on Robinhood platform since the company entered prediction markets less than a year ago through its Kalshi partnership. More than a million customers are already active in this space, betting on everything from Federal Reserve interest rate decisions to geopolitical events. What started as an experiment has become one of the fastest-growing revenue streams, with annual run rates now exceeding $300 million according to Bernstein analysts.

Think about what that means for a platform with 14 million active traders. Robinhood found a natural fit between its user base and a product that lets people essentially price the probability of real-world events. The appeal is obvious: these aren't just abstract financial instruments, they're ways to express views on things people actually follow and care about.

The new exchange changes the game in a meaningful way. By acquiring majority control of MIAXdx, an exchange already approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Robinhood gains the ability to create and list its own event contracts rather than relying solely on third-party providers. Susquehanna will provide liquidity, the critical ingredient that ensures users can always find someone to take the other side of their trades at reasonable prices.

For investors evaluating $HOOD, this partnership addresses a real strategic question the company has been wrestling with. Robinhood currently drives more than half the trading volume on Kalshi prediction markets, which raises an obvious tension: why hand over so much of the economics when you're doing most of the heavy lifting? The new platform lets Robinhood keep more of the value it creates while still maintaining its Kalshi relationship.

Bernstein maintains a buy rating with a $160 price target, and their thesis makes sense when you look at the trajectory. In less than a year, this business went from zero to a $100 million annual revenue run rate, then tripled to $300 million. The growth isn't slowing down either, with engagement particularly strong among younger users and active traders, exactly the demographics Robinhood knows how to serve.

The timing is interesting too. Prediction markets have moved from regulatory gray areas into mainstream acceptance over the past year. That shift creates room for established platforms like Robinhood to build serious infrastructure around these products. The recent acquisition of Bitstamp for crypto and now this derivatives exchange show a clear pattern: Robinhood is building a more complete financial services platform, not just staying in its lane as a stock trading app.

There's real momentum here. Since its volatile IPO in 2021, $HOOD has been searching for its next act. The combination of prediction markets, expanded crypto offerings, and new premium banking features seems to be resonating. The stock 10% jump today reflects investors recognizing that these aren't side projects anymore, they're material contributors to the business.

For traders watching this space, the question isn't whether prediction markets will be a thing, it's whether Robinhood can maintain its lead as more competitors enter. Having a proprietary exchange with deep liquidity backing gives them structural advantages that won't be easy to replicate. When you combine that with an installed base of millions of users who've already shown appetite for these products, the setup looks pretty solid.

The market is clearly betting on Robinhood ability to execute on this vision. Whether that plays out over quarters or years depends on how quickly the company can expand its contract offerings and keep the user experience simple enough for mainstream adoption. For now, the momentum is clearly on their side.

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