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28 Oct 2025Wall Street is catching its breath this morning after yesterday record-breaking session. Futures are trading relatively flat, which feels about right after the $SPX closed above 6,800 points for the first time ever, with the $COMPQ and $DJI both hitting all-time highs. The question now is whether there's enough fuel left in the tank to keep this rally going.
The Fed kicks off its two-day policy meeting, with a decision coming tomorrow. Almost everyone expects another 25 basis point rate cut, the second this year. What traders really want to hear is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals about December. With the labor market showing some cracks, the market is betting the central bank will keep supporting growth. Even with parts of the government shut down and economic data temporarily missing, that's the prevailing assumption.
Earnings season is still center stage. We're waiting on results from $GOOGL, $AMZN, $AAPL, $META, and $MSFT five tech giants that make up about a quarter of the SPX total weight. So far Q3 earnings have been stronger than expected, with companies beating revenue forecasts at the highest rate in four years. The worry is that some of those aggressive growth expectations for tech might already be fully baked into current prices.
In pre-market action, $PYPL is absolutely flying, up 14% after crushing Q3 expectations. PayPal reported adjusted earnings of $1.34 per share versus the $1.20 consensus, with revenues hitting $8.4 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Total payment volume climbed to $458 billion. Right before earnings dropped, PayPal announced it's partnering with $OPENAI to become ChatGPT default wallet. That's the kind of strategic positioning that reminds you this company still has serious game in digital payments.
$UPS is another standout, jumping 16% in pre-market after posting earnings of $1.74 per share and revenues of $21.4 billion, both well above estimates. The report shows stronger demand for US shipping services and better operational efficiency. After months of pressure on logistics from slowing global trade, this is a genuine bright spot.
$UNH is up 4% pre-market following better-than-expected results and a raised full-year outlook. The health insurance giant's medical expense ratio came in at 89.9%, below the forecasted 90.7%. In a sector that's been relatively stable, these numbers are reassuring.
$AMZN is ticking up about 0.6% despite announcing plans to cut roughly 14,000 headquarters positions. Amazon says it'll keep hiring in strategic areas while removing management layers and streamlining operations. The market is reading this as a profitability push after years of rapid headcount growth.
$NEM is down about 4% pre-market, extending recent losses as gold prices pull back sharply. $NVS, the Swiss pharma company, is losing 2.8% after missing earnings expectations and reporting weaker sales of key drugs.
$QRVO jumped nearly 10% pre-market on reports that $SWKS is in talks to acquire the company, with Skyworks itself down 2.3%. It's another sign of consolidation in the chip sector. $QCOM is slightly lower, down 0.2%, after massive 11% surge on news it'll supply AI accelerators to Saudi Arabia Humain venture.
Oil continues sliding for the third straight day, with Brent at $64.33 per barrel and WTI at $60.64. The market is reassessing US sanctions on Russian oil companies and weighing whether OPEC+ might boost production in December.
The setup heading into tomorrow Fed decision is fascinating. You have genuine progress on trade and solid corporate fundamentals, but you also have a market that's priced in a lot of positive outcomes. It's the kind of environment where Powell tone matters as much as the actual rate cut. With inflation still above target but the labor market softening, the Fed is walking a tightrope between supporting growth and not reigniting inflation fears.
As earnings keep rolling in and we edge closer to that Trump-Xi meeting, traders are watching closely. The rally has been impressive, but staying power depends on whether reality can match the optimism driving prices higher right now.
Yesterday at 09:27
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