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24 Oct 2025Futures drifted slightly higher Thursday night ahead of Friday's September CPI report. The data was postponed from October 15 due to the government shutdown and now lands in an awkward spot where employment numbers have become more important for the Fed's next move. Still, this is the only inflation read before next week's meeting, and that quarter-point cut everyone's pricing in isn't the real story.
What matters is whether Chinese tariffs are finally showing up in consumer prices. That's the detail worth positioning around, not the headline most traders have already discounted.
After-hours moves gave us some direction. $INTC surged 7% after posting $13.65 billion in revenue versus $13.14 billion expected. For anyone holding through Intel's brutal year, this is the first sign demand might be stabilizing. Whether you chase it or wait is your call, but there's finally something beyond disappointment to trade.
$F climbed 4% despite cutting full-year guidance. The quarter beat expectations, and the cut stems from aluminum supply issues, not demand weakness. Markets know the difference between fixable problems and structural decay. That creates opportunity if you're reading past headlines.
$GOOGL edged up 1% on a massive cloud deal with AI firm Anthropic, including a million specialized processors through 2026. These aren't speculative plays anymore they're companies building real competitive moats, which changes how you think about holding through volatility.
Thursday closed green: Nasdaq up 0.9%, S&P 500 up 0.6%, Dow up 0.3%. Beneath that, $GILD jumped 7% and $TSLA added 2.3%. Single-name sentiment can shift fast even when the broader market barely moves.
Here's what changed: six months ago, delayed CPI data would have frozen positioning. Now it's background noise because the Fed conversation evolved. Inflation matters, but it's not the only variable driving policy. That shift changes where we look for edges.
Friday setup is straightforward but not easy. Consensus expects numbers that keep the Fed on track, but any surprise could spike volatility. Position sizing matters more than directional conviction. The real trade might be sector rotation based on whether tariff effects appear or stay hidden.
Nothing about this moment screams easy money. Markets function, capital moves, but things could shift quickly if data doesn't cooperate. The edge comes from reading what actually moves sentiment versus what fills headlines. Stay sharp, manage your stops, and remember that being right about direction means nothing if your timing or sizing is wrong.
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