Wall Street This Week: Inflation Data, Fed Rate Cut Odds, and Earnings Wave

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Find out what happening right now and get all the pieces of the puzzle on important data activity before the major news sources break the story and see what are the trends
 

•  10 Aug 2025
 

•   AAPL  
   
  -0.95%
•   AMAT  
   
  -0.27%
•   AMCR  
   
  -0.21%
•   CAH  
   
  +0.16%
•   CE  
   
  -1.54%

Wall Street opens the new trading week riding strong momentum, with the S\&P 500 up 2.4% last week, the Nasdaq jumping 3.9%, and the Dow gaining 1.4%. Weak July jobs data and rising trade tensions under Trump, including new tariffs on 90 countries, have boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September. Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a cut to 4.25%, with another reduction possible by year-end.

Technology stocks led the rally, with Apple $AAPL soaring after securing tariff exemptions from the Trump administration, while Nvidia $NVDA and Microsoft $MSFT continued to benefit from the AI boom.

Investors are now turning their attention to critical macroeconomic data that could influence the Fed’s next move. On Tuesday, the July Consumer Price Index is expected to show a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.8% annual increase, with Core CPI forecast to climb 0.3% on the month. Thursday will bring weekly jobless claims, projected at 220,000, alongside the Producer Price Index, which is expected to rise 0.2% after holding steady in June. Friday will feature July retail sales data, with forecasts pointing to a 0.5% increase in total sales and a 0.3% rise in core sales.

Analysts are divided on the short-term market outlook. Some see last week gains as a sign that fears have peaked and a recovery is underway, while others caution that ignoring economic risks could lead to a sharp correction when reality sets in.

Earnings season is also entering its final stretch. Celanese $CE will kick things off on Monday, with forecasts of $1.40 earnings per share and $2.5 billion in revenue. On Tuesday, Cardinal Health $CAH is expected to report $2.03 per share on $60.9 billion in revenue. Wednesday will see Cisco $CSCO post results, with expectations of $0.98 per share and $14.6 billion in revenue, boosted by strong AI and data infrastructure demand. Thursday will be packed with reports from Applied Materials $AMAT, Deere $DE, Ross Stores $ROST, Tapestry $TPR, and Amcor $AMCR, representing sectors from technology and industrials to retail and consumer goods.

With inflation readings, speculation on Fed policy, and a heavy slate of corporate earnings, this week could determine whether Wall Street’s summer rally continues or shifts toward caution.