Today Option Markets Signal Major Moves Ahead

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•  12 Apr 2025
 

The options market is showing significant unusual activity today across multiple sectors, potentially signaling smart money positioning ahead of upcoming catalysts.

Start with Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM), where heavy bearish options positioning dominated the tape. We tracked substantial volume flowing into puts, signaling that deep-pocketed players are betting on a potential downside. It’s not clear whether these moves are hedge-driven or speculative in nature, but when option activity diverges this significantly from the underlying price trend, it tends to precede a headline or a shift in fundamentals.

In Booking Holdings ($BKNG), the options tape was buzzing. Our scan revealed 64 unusual trades, with a skew toward calls—though the presence of over $1.3 million in put activity suggests a hedged or cautious outlook among high rollers. The call activity was notably larger in dollar volume, hinting that some traders may be positioning for upside volatility or earnings surprises, while others remain guarded.

Blackstone ($BX) also flashed on our radar with concentrated bearish sentiment. Significant put buying today could imply institutional concern over asset valuation or macro exposure. Given BX’s sensitivity to rate expectations and private market dynamics, these moves might reflect a view that credit markets are about to tighten—or at least stall in terms of growth momentum.

Turning to Costco ($COST), sentiment leaned negative as well. Nearly $700K flowed into puts compared to about $840K into calls, but a majority of trades had a bearish tilt. This divergence raises eyebrows, especially considering the stock's relatively steady performance. Institutions might be bracing for a potential shift in consumer demand or pressure on margins.

In Freeport-McMoRan ($FCX), we saw a similar dynamic: 31 trades, heavily weighted toward the downside. With $1.2M in put activity versus $836K in calls, the skew was significant. Traders could be reacting to commodity price volatility or bracing for a shift in global demand for copper and related industrial metals. These kinds of macro-sensitive names often act as leading indicators for broader risk appetite.

General Motors ($GM) also made the list, as bearish trades rolled in at scale. Options flow suggested strong conviction from institutional players expecting near-term pressure, perhaps tied to cyclical weakness or concerns about EV production timelines. As GM navigates a transformative phase in its business model, options traders may be hedging against execution risk.

Nucor ($NUE) showed a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment, but the bulls slightly edged out. Still, when half the trades lean one way, and a third go the other, it signals uncertainty more than conviction. With both calls and puts showing healthy premium outlays, it may simply be a volatility play, or positioning ahead of key earnings or economic data related to steel demand.

Verizon ($VZ), however, painted a decisively bearish picture. A large chunk of trades pointed to downside protection or outright bearish speculation. For a stock like VZ—usually considered a defensive play—this shift in sentiment is especially noteworthy. The options market might be pricing in risks related to debt load, margin pressure, or slowing subscriber growth.

Lastly, Walmart ($WMT) saw a sharp divergence in sentiment, with more bearish bets dominating the tape. Out of the ten trades we tracked, six were bearish with about $285K in put exposure. Though not enormous in size, the intent is clear: the street is watching for a potential slip in consumer spending or changes to margin forecasts as inflation trends evolve.