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Shopify Stock TANKED 20%?! Here is Why It Might Be a HUGE Buying Opportunity

  • user  Investment.Sensei
    Investment.Sensei  Investment.Sensei

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Shopify Stock TANKED 20%?! Here is Why It Might Be a HUGE Buying Opportunity

Shopify reported better-than-expected Q1 adjusted earnings of $0.20 per share, but a surprise loss of $0.21 per share on a GAAP basis
Revenue grew 23% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, topping estimates of $1.83 billion
Gross merchandise volume (GMV) jumped 23% to $60.9 billion as larger retailers joined the platform
However, Shopify stock tanked over 20% on warnings of slowing revenue growth due to the logistics business sale

Despite reporting better-than-expected adjusted earnings for Q1 2024, Shopify's stock tanked over 20% on Thursday in a massive sell-off. The e-commerce platform provider beat analysts' estimates by posting adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 versus the $0.17 expected. However, on a GAAP basis, the company reported a surprising loss of $0.21 per share, while Wall Street had projected a profit of $0.09 per share. Shopify's revenue grew an impressive 23% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.83 billion.


So why did Shopify's stock price crater despite the better-than-expected top and bottom line results? Investors were spooked by the company's warning that the sale of its logistics business would weigh on revenue growth in Q2 2024. Shopify forecasted Q2 revenue growth above 15% year-over-year, but cautioned that the logistics sale will shave 3-4 percentage points off that figure. The company stated that absent the logistics divestiture, revenue would have grown over 20%.


The outlook for contracting gross profit margins in Q2 also rattled investors. After expanding a whopping 390 basis points year-over-year to 51.4% in Q1, Shopify warned that gross margins will dip slightly in Q2 versus Q1 levels. The reduced revenue growth and margin pressure raised concerns among investors about whether the e-commerce juggernaut can sustain its blistering pace of growth and expansion.


Despite the Q2 guidance disappointment, Shopify reported several bright spots in Q1 that underscore its long-term growth potential. Gross merchandise volume (GMV), a key metric measuring the total value of orders processed on the company's platform, soared 23% year-over-year to $60.9 billion. This rapid GMV growth was fueled by new business wins from major retailers like, SoulCycle, and Coach shifting more of their online sales to Shopify.


The company's point-of-sale (POS) business was another standout performer, with POS GMV surging 32% compared to the prior year as larger sellers adopted the service. Shopify's burgeoning POS segment is a strategic growth driver, enabling merchants to offer seamless omnichannel shopping experiences by unifying their online and brick-and-mortar operations on a single platform.


Shopify's free cash flow demonstrated robust growth as well, more than doubling from $116 million in Q1 2023 to $232 million in the latest quarter. The strong free cash flow generation illustrates the scalability and profitability of Shopify's business model as it expands its merchant base.


While investor concerns about decelerating topline growth and margin pressures in the near-term are valid, many Wall Street analysts remain bullish on Shopify's long-term trajectory. Following the Q1 print, Citi upgraded their rating on Shopify to Buy from Neutral, setting a new $105 price target. The analysts cited the "attractive entry point" after the stock's over 20% pullback, their confidence in Shopify's growth runway, and the resilience of consumer spending evidenced by strong Q1 retail sales data.


Shopify currently trades at around 60x forward earnings, a sizable discount to its valuation earlier this year when the stock fetched 82x projected profits. At a market capitalization of $79.7 billion after shedding nearly 20% year-to-date, some investors may view Shopify as an attractive buying opportunity for patient shareholders willing to withstand near-term turbulence.


While the path ahead is unlikely to be a straight line, Shopify boasts several compelling tailwinds that could fuel sustainable growth over the long run. The accelerating digital transformation of commerce provides a powerful secular catalyst, as more merchants prioritize establishing robust omnichannel presences. Shopify's expanding global footprint, innovative product pipeline, and ease of use position it to continue capturing outsized market share within the rapidly growing e-commerce solutions space.


Additionally, Shopify's success in landing prominent brands and retail heavyweights like Overstock and Coach demonstrates its platform's scalability in serving larger enterprise clients. Cross-selling higher-value services like payments, shipping, and financing to this growing cohort of larger merchants could drive margin expansion over time. Shopify's management team has consistently proven adept at reinvesting for growth, strategically forsaking near-term profits to double down on opportunities that extend the company's competitive advantages.


Ultimately, investors with the stomach to endure volatility and a long-term time horizon may want to consider Shopify as a core holding. While the company's Q2 guidance admittedly fell short, the e-commerce disruptor's recent 20% stock plunge could represent an attractive entry point for risk-tolerant investors seeking to capitalize on the digital commerce megatrend.


SHOP Stock Analysis

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 Earnings are forecast to grow


 Upgraded on attractively valued


 Trading below its fair value


 Investors confidence is positive


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Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.

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