Find new investment opportunities based on Market Sentiment Indicator. Manage watchlist risk with leading indicator of volatility See what influential analysts and investors are saying about stocks in your watchlist
Find new investment opportunities based on Market Sentiment Indicator. Manage watchlist risk with leading indicator of volatility See what influential analysts and investors are saying about stocks in your watchlist
stocksrunnerFind out what happening right now and get all the pieces of the puzzle on important data activity before the major news sources break the story and see what are the trends
This week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and fresh reads on inflation as markets try to gauge the path forward for monetary policy. A host of key economic data and corporate earnings results will also help shape the investment landscape. Here are the major events investors need to watch:
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.5%
However, the Fed's statement, economic projections, and comments from Chair Jerome Powell will be highly scrutinized
Based on recent inflation data, the Fed is likely to signal additional rate hikes are coming but keep a data-dependent approach
U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data last week showed inflation rose 0.4% in February, pushing the annual rate back up to 6%
Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, increased 0.5% month-over-month and 5.5% year-over-year
The stalling progress on disinflation, particularly in sticky service prices, could spur the Fed to take a more hawkish stance
On Tuesday, February housing starts and building permits data will offer a pulse on the struggling residential real estate market
Eurozone CPI for February is also out on Thursday along with U.S. PMI numbers for March, gauging business activity
April 30
While hopes were high for a pause in rate hikes, the latest inflation readings likely dashed those expectations. The Fed has consistently stated its commitment to taming inflation, even at the risk of an economic downturn.
The main reason for the slowdown in inflation now is related to the prices of services, whose annual rate has increased again in recent months.
Although there are signs of moderation in activity this is not a real weakness that justifies an interest rate cut, especially when the inflation environment continues to be problematic.
As a result, markets now anticipate the Fed will signal one or two more quarter-point rate increases are likely in the coming meetings. Projections from Fed officials will be scrutinized, with any shift in the "dot plot" of individual rate forecasts closely watched.
Penning expects the median dot plot to rise from three total rate hikes projected in December to just two for 2023. It is enough for two members to change their minds from three to two interest rate cuts this year for the Fed's (median) forecast to also drop to two cuts.
The dichotomy of slowing growth and stubborn inflation continues to create a challenging backdrop for investors to navigate. On one hand, the Fed's aggressive rate hike campaign has clearly dented economic activity and raised the risk of a recession if pushed too far. However, relenting too soon could let inflation become further entrenched.
Further clouding the outlook, geopolitical tensions threaten additional supply shocks that could feed inflationary pressures. Recent attacks on Russian oil refineries underscore the potential disruption.
In the last week, significant damage to Russia's oil refining capacity was reported by Ukraine. On Friday, Reuters estimated the damage to nearly 400 barrels of oil per day (about 0.4% of global capacity), and it seems that this will continue into the weekend. If this continues, we will definitely expect a market reaction.
Ultimately, this week's tsunami of data and information will go a long way in shaping the market's perspective on the Fed's remaining policy tightening path. Investors would be wise to pay close attention and position portfolios accordingly, as mixed economic signals raise the stakes considerably. Preparation and prudent risk management will be crucial to navigating the turbulent investing landscape that likely lies ahead.
Join StocksRunner.com for daily market updates, expert analyses, and actionable insights.
Signup now for FREE and stay ahead of the market curve!
Find out what 10,000+ subscribers already know.
Real-time insights for informed decisions.
Limited slots available, SignUp Now!
Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.
Get all the pieces of the puzzle on important data activity before the major news sources break the story and find out what happening right now and what could happen in the future
FIND US ON
Discover the wisdom that over 10,000+ subscribers love! Join us for unique insights and keep ahead in the stock world. Just drop your email to get daily updates!
Real-time stock market updates
Expert stock analysis
Investment strategies
Top stock recommendations
Trading signals and opportunities
Disclaimer: Past performance, whether explicitly stated or inferred from historical testing of methodologies, does not serve as an assurance of future outcomes or achievements.
The displayed outcomes pertain to a strategy not historically accessible to investors and do not epitomize the returns achieved by any specific investor. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators, and aggregate score derive from a model retrospectively applied to historical data. This model is founded on assumptions intrinsic to its construct, which may remain unverifiable and expose stakeholders to potential losses. Engaging in active trading may not be advisable for individuals possessing limited financial resources, restricted investment or trading acumen, or a conservative risk profile.
Please be advised that your invested capital is subject to inherent risks.
Kindly be informed that StocksRunner and its affiliated entities ("TS") neither extend nor endorse any proposition, invitation, or recommendation concerning the acquisition or divestiture of securities, derivatives, prospective products, or any form of investment guidance or strategy.
The information presented herein serves exclusively for illustrative purposes. It is imperative not to predicate investment decisions solely on the content of this platform. Prior to making any financial commitments, it is prudent to evaluate its relevance to your specific circumstances and consult with professionals specializing in financial, tax, and legal domains.
Find out what happening right now and get all the pieces of the puzzle on important data activity before the major news sources break the story and see what are the trends
FIND US ON
Unlock the knowledge that 10,000+ subscribers already cherish. Join for exclusive insights and stay ahead in the stock game! Enter your email to receive daily alerts
In-depth stock analysis
Informed investment decisions
Stock market insights
Stock trading tips
Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
