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+10.04%
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+28.09%
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The US dollar is on the verge of achieving the "golden cross" for the first time since July 2021, a development that has led certain analysts to interpret it as a bearish signal for the stock market.
The formation of the "golden cross" occurs when the 50-day moving average surpasses the 200-day moving average for a specific index. According to a consensus among many analysts, this phenomenon signifies the gathering of momentum in a particular direction.
The converse notion is referred to as the "death cross," which occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average for a specific index. The most recent instance of a "death cross" for the dollar was documented on January 10. Subsequently, the US currency experienced a six-month period of declines, culminating in reaching its lowest point in 2023 on July 14. Following this decline, the dollar has exhibited gains, a trend that some analysts anticipate will persist. This projection is influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its intent to maintain interest rates above 5% throughout 2024.
Based on a Dow Jones Market Data analysis, the US dollar maintains an upward trajectory for three months following the occurrence of the "golden cross," doing so 79% of the time and with an average growth rate of 1.9%. Over the subsequent year, the dollar exhibits an ascent in 58% of instances, accompanied by an average rise of 1.5%.
As reported by Marketwatch, following the prior "golden cross" of the dollar that occurred on July 29, 2021, the ICE global dollar index surged by approximately 25%, escalating from 91 to 115 by September 2022, marking a two-decade high. Nonetheless, as previously mentioned, analysts are of the opinion that the dollar's strengthening, coupled with the rise in government bond yields, could pose challenges for the stock market.
Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
