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What to do when the Stock Does not Behave According to Analysts Expectations?

 
  •  Shai.Gal
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    Shai.Gal  Shai.Gal
     
      
     
     
     

    Shai Gal is a highly experienced financial journalist with expertise in the tech industry and dividend growth stocks. He has a strong track record of producing insightful content that helps investors make informed decisions. Shai is skilled in conducting in-depth research and analysis to identify trends and opportunities in the market.

     
 
 
 

We hold stocks not for intellectual reasons but to make money. If a graph shows that there are currently no buyers in the area who will raise our stock, why not switch to another stock?

 

Let's start with the fact that analysts are human. And as human beings they make mistakes and in their case they make a lot of mistakes. As evidence, the frequent situations in which a company publishes a quarterly report and "beats the forecasts" or "disappoints". They are wrong both from the essence of their profession, which deals with running future estimates in Excel and building a story around them, and also due to mental biases that accompany their profession.

 

They make assumptions about the business future of the company, the product, the economic environment and countless other assumptions and the reality, what to do, is not bound by these assumptions.

 

The Danger of Attachment to Analyst Recommendations

 

Our demand for an "explanation" of the gap between the graph and the analysts' recommendations is rooted in the attachment of the person asking for the explanation and sometimes also dreams of profit, to the analyst's recommendation and his desire for the analyst to be right. Without this connection there is not much that needs to be explained. An analyst is "another person" who is often wrong in understanding reality. Not a big deal. Buddha got over it a long time ago.

 

The reality of a stock does not necessarily correspond to the reality of a company. The reality of a stock reflects the total opinions of investors regarding it and these are not necessarily related to the current data that the company publishes.

 

All the relevant information is embodied in the share prices and what is important is not the information itself but what the investors think about it. The analyst is one person with a thought. Even 30 analysts are a drop in the sea of opinions and forces that operate in the market. So why listen to them and not the market?

 

Maybe the Question should be the Other Way Around?

 

How do I explain that even though the stock has not been behaving well for a long time, the analysts think otherwise? Why should the graph adapt itself to the analyst and not the analyst to the graph? Technical analysis is exactly that.

 

An analyst who adjusts himself to the graph. So if you have a hard time with a reality where you have formed an opinion about a stock and the opinion does not materialize, on a practical level simply adapt yourself to the stock, that is, to reality. In the philosophical layer, you are invited to go down and explore where this opinion came from and what it means, if at all. For this you will have to put your ego aside.

 
 

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    Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.

     

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    Disclaimer: The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.

    Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").

    This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.