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What will Drive the Stock Market this Week?

 
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The trading week on Wall Street that opens tomorrow will be shorter than usual on the occasion of the American Independence Day that will take place next Tuesday when there will be no trading at all. Tomorrow, the eve of Independence Day, trading will end at 1:00 p.m

 

Wall Street's Remarkable First Half of 2023

 

The first half of 2023 ended last Friday with Wall Street trading closed and as it stands, it's the best half in years. The Nasdaq soared by 32.7%, the S&P 500 jumped by 16.4%, while the Dow Jones added about 3.8%. These are impressive figures by all accounts, all the more so since the global economy is still unstable and the warning cloud of a severe recession has not yet passed if Because it is only postponed from time to time.

 

The US Fed's war on inflation - which currently stands at 4% - has yet to show signs of slowing down, and despite the freeze on the latest interest rate increase, the chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, has already managed to stress that he anticipates further interest rate increases in the future, probably as soon as This coming July 26.

 

According to some Wall Street analysts' estimates, the Fed interest rate may even cross the 6% threshold and remain unchanged for a considerable time in order for the Fed to feel confident that the interest rate hike is indeed achieving its goal of lowering inflation to the 2nd zone %.

 

Macro Data to Watch This Week

 

Monday - ISM purchasing managers' index in industry (June).
Wednesday - Caixin Services PMI in China (June).
Thursday - ISM Purchasing Managers' Index in the service industries (June).
Friday - employment data (June), the expectation is for an increase of 200 thousand employed.

 

On Thursday, the financial report of the fashion giant LEVI'S will be published.

 

The stock market continues to reject forecasts for a recession, in contrast to the bond market, where the continued inversion of the yield curves predicts a severe recession. The inversion of the curve is more an expression of expectations for a decrease in inflation than a recession. In the stock market, the expansion of gains from a small number of large technology stocks to the rest of the stocks and sectors has been felt in the past month. The S&P 500 did not outperform the equal-weighted S&P 500 last month.The consumer discretionary, materials and industrials sectors outperformed the technology stocks sector.

 

Fed Interest Rates Set to Rise

 

Forecasts for the Fed interest rate implied in the capital market have been updated upwards. The futures contracts on the Fed interest rate currently embody with a high probability an interest rate increase of 0.25% on July 26, to a level of 5.5%, and the interest rate is expected to remain at this level until the end of 2023. The capital market expects that the interest rate will decrease during the next two years, although in a moderate way than it previously estimated , to a level of 4.25% at the end of 2024 and 3.75% at the end of 2025.

 
 

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Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.

 
 
 
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Disclaimer: The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.

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Disclaimer: The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.

Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").

This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.