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Find new investment opportunities based on Market Sentiment Indicator. Manage watchlist risk with leading indicator of volatility See what influential analysts and investors are saying about stocks in your watchlist
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Despite lowering the growth forecasts for 2024, most economists do not lower the inflation forecast for next year. Higher inflation actually contributed to lower growth. This phenomenon is known from the high inflation years in the past. The central banks are supposed to know that it was usually not possible to achieve higher growth due to slightly higher inflation. However, despite the experience, it seems that they are once again unable to withstand the pressure and recently voiced estimates that the interest rate has already risen to a restraining level that will be sufficient to deal with inflation. These calls are heard despite that inflation continues to surprise mainly upwards.
According to the contracts, the interest rate at the end of the year will be at the current level of 5.1%, exactly according to the Fed's forecast. The contracts are priced so that the interest rate will rise by another 0.25% and before it falls towards the end of the year. Only a month ago the contracts embodied a low interest rate of about 1% at the end of 2023. In light of the latest economic data, there is a high chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.25% in June, but before that more inflation and employment data will be published that may change the decision.
The contracts embody an interest rate of 3.7% at the end of 2024, lower than the Fed's forecast for an interest rate of 4.3%. However, starting in 2025, the forecasts for interest in contracts are significantly higher than in the Fed's forecast. According to the contracts, the interest rate in 2028 will be around 3.9%, compared to the longer run interest rate of 2.5% that appears in the Fed's forecasts.
The real estate market shows an increase in the number of transactions. Sales of new homes registered an increase of 4.1% in April. In the last six months, the sharp decrease in transactions was halted, and they have started to rise. The level in April is now about 12% higher than in August 2022, but it is still lower than The record was recorded on 04/22.The contracts for the purchase of apartments remained unchanged in April, and their level is still about 23% lower than last year.
Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
