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Most Trending
-8.97%
-4.37%
-0.07%
+1.66%
+5.77%
Most Trending
-8.97%
-4.37%
-0.07%
+1.66%
+5.77%
According to the Ark Model, $4,600 in 2026 is based on two main Tesla growth engines:
Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026. ARK expects electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue. The chart below breaks down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and value by business line in this model.
Autonomous Driving: ARK Predict that Tesla will solve the problem of fully autonomous driving. That will result in more demand for autonomous ride-hailing services at higher price points. ARK research suggests that travelers in western markets place a value on their work-related travel miles close to their hourly wage and value their non-work-related travel miles at close to half their hourly wage. In low-income countries, at $0.50 per mile, we assume another long tail of demand priced similarly to today’s ride-hail options. Taken together, ARK estimates the total addressable market for autonomous ride-hailing at roughly $11–12 trillion, as shown below.
There are other business opportunities for Tesla that could be strategically interesting and financially meaningful:
1. Tesla’s energy business
2. AI-as-a-service
3. Humanoid robot
Ark believes that Tesla's model is methodologically conservative; they assume that Tesla’s stock will trade like a mature company rather than a high-growth one in 2026. The terminal multiple used in ARK’s model is probably too low relative to Tesla’s likely growth in 2026, a conservative modeling practice at ARK. As a result, share price expectations are highly sensitive to the year of the price target.
Given the updates outlined in this article, ARK’s price target for Tesla is $4,600 per share in 2026.
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Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
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