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Will the Fed Surprise Wall Street? Why Interest Rates Remain Uncertain in 2023

 
 
 
 

The Fed itself does not currently estimate that there will be a drop in interest rates soon, and in fact emphasized this last Wednesday, when it estimates that the interest rate at the end of the coming year will be at the level of 5.1%, i.e. the current level. Powell repeated that if the Fed's forecast "is generally correct, it would not be appropriate to lower the interest rate, and we will not lower the interest rate."

 

Still on Friday the stock market jumped by 2%, and this after a strong employment report. A strong employment report means that the economy is strong and the Fed is still unable to stop it, so actually interest rates should continue to rise, which is a bad sign that could lead to lower interest rates. This again shows investors the problem with trying to time the market - the stock markets are rising despite news that in the last year actually brought the market down. If you were to act according to what happened last year and sell shares on Friday - you would apparently do the logical thing, but the market thought otherwise.

 

So it can be explained that investors are looking for reasons to go up, and treat semi-good news as good, reasonable reports as good reports, he clings to the results of Apple and the results of other companies that posted good results, but this also means that there is great concern - sharp increases can also turn into sharp decreases.

 

But the Fed knows that raising interest rates takes time to have an effect, so they basically say, ok, let's wait a few months and see the effects of the sharp interest rate hikes that have been carried out so far, and then we'll see what happens next.

 

Bad News or Good News?

 

The rise in interest rates has hurt the regional banks, the apparent credit crunch is sending the economy into recession, so bad news is good news and the Fed can stop interest rate hikes. But good news is bad news, there are still too many new jobs and this may indicate insufficient cooling in the economy so this may lead to further interest rate increases eventually.

 
 
 
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Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.

 

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Disclaimer: The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.

Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").

This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.