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The stock market on Wall Street is priced high and far above their fair market value, warns the Morgan Stanley bank, led by chief market strategist Michael Wilson, who accurately predicted the sharp declines of 2022. The market is overpriced according to the bank, and this could lead to a 26% retreat in the S&P index The top 500 stocks of the New York Stock Exchange until the end of the first half of the year.
The bank said that the latest economic data do indicate that the economy may slip out of recession, but the Federal Reserve has not yet finished with its aggressive policy against inflation, in the form of interest rate hikes.
The shares are priced at a higher price than the fair value even more than in 2007, before the financial crisis of 2008-2009 that hit the world economies, and the capital markets in particular, the bank said. The risk compared to the possible reward is too great, according to Morgan Stanley.
Wilson describe that "the risk premium on investments in the stock market on Wall Street is in a stage called the 'death zone' which indicates a very slim opportunity for profits in the face of the risks. This is when the Fed is far from ending its monetary tightening against inflation, and in addition, the market forecasts for the profits of the companies are too high compared to the profits that we expect them".
Wilson foresees a possibility that the S&P 500 index will be cut by a quarter and plunge up to 3,000 points, by the end of the first half of the year. "Our opinion is not in the consensus of the other analysts on Wall Street at this point," said the bank, especially when institutional and retail investors are optimistic, as can be seen from the beginning of 2023, with the increases recorded so far this year.
Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.