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Find new investment opportunities based on Market Sentiment Indicator. Manage watchlist risk with leading indicator of volatility See what influential analysts and investors are saying about stocks in your watchlist
Most Trending
Most Trending
Following the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate hike of 0.25%, which met expectations, bringing the rate to 4.5% to 4.75%, the Fed indicated the need for further interest rate increases. Nonetheless, during the press conference, Chairman Powell emphasized that there is still much work to be done to decrease inflation.
The stock markets recorded sharp gains against the backdrop of rising expectations for an interest rate cut in 2024, with the indicator signaling a recession strengthening. The yield on the 2Y government bonds is trading above 4%, compared to the 10Y which are trading at 3.4%. Powell's calm tone, together with the signals from the bond market, raise the estimates that the Fed may not raise the interest rate above 5.1% As planned, which sent the financial markets soaring.
There were many expectations that Powell would come to the press conference in a relatively aggressive manner in order to convince the markets that the Fed does indeed intend to continue raising interest rates several more times, but at least according to the markets' reaction, he was not successful in this task.
As far as the Fed is concerned, the message they are conveying is that a disinflation process has begun and is only at its beginning. At the same time, it seems that the economy is not going into recession, so these interest rate increases will be able to continue.
Powell repeats and claims that slow growth and a certain relaxation in the labor market will be required to bring inflation to the target and for that a tightening policy will be required for another period of time and he does not see how they lower the interest rate in 2023.
In our estimation, the economic data that has been coming out for some time now in the US signal that it is approaching an economic recession much faster than the Fed estimates - you only have to look at the purchasing managers indices, the new orders in the economy, the confidence indices of consumers, businesses and contractors and of course the sharp decline Very active in the American real estate market.
All these are red flags that signal to us that the recession in the US is coming and it is much closer than the Fed estimates
Please note that the article should not be considered as investment advice or marketing, and it does not take into account the personal data and requirements of any individual. It is not a substitute for the reader's own judgment, and it should not be considered as advice or recommendation for buying or selling any securities or financial products.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
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Disclaimer:
The Score performance whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained.
The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. The Readiness Indicators, Sentiment Indicators and total score are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited invesment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance. Your capital may be at risk.
Please note that no offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives of future products of any kind, or any type of trading or invesment advise, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or endorsed by StocksRunner including any of their affiliates ("TS").
This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision. we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice.
